No deal (yet) on EV duties between EU and China

The EU and China did not reach a breakthrough in high-level talks on duties for made-in-China electric vehicles, the bloc’s trade chief Valdis Dombrovskis said on Thursday after Chinese Minister for Commerce Wang Wentao had left — but Beijing will get another chance.
Dombrovskis reopened the window for Wang to come back with a better counter offer on prices or volume — also known as undertakings — spokesperson for trade Olof Gill said in a statement: “The two sides agreed to take a renewed look at price undertakings.”
The Commission rejected the first such offers outright last week, arguing they didn’t sufficiently address the state subsidies that China lavishes onto its electric car industry. These subsidies are the core of the investigation. According to the Commission, they create an unfair advantage over European EV makers.
The EU’s executive has now found legal opportunities in the rules that govern these anti-subsidy investigations to present the Chinese with another chance for a revised offer. 
“Both sides agreed to intensify efforts to find an effective, enforceable and WTO compatible solution to the [battery electric vehicle] case,” Dombrovskis posted on X. That’s eurospeak to say China still refuses to engage with the EU’s findings that Beijing unfairly supports its car industry.
“This without prejudice to the EU investigation and its deadlines,” the Latvian commissioner added, meaning the process will resume and — most likely — result in duties getting imposed from late October.
The next stage is for the Commission to inform member countries so they can prepare for a vote.
As POLITICO reported Wednesday, the bloc’s national trade experts will not be voting on the duties next week as was originally planned. Once the Commission officially informs the national governments of its definitive findings in the investigation can this vote be scheduled for the Trade Defence Instruments Committee. 
Theoretically, a blockage is possible but would be nothing short of sensational, as this has never happened in the history of European trade policy. The voting procedure is advantageous to the Commission — by design, since it holds the authority on trade matters. 
A simple majority, or 14 countries, is required to trigger an appeal procedure for which a qualified majority is needed: 15 countries representing 65 percent of the bloc’s population.
Taking the dynamics of this case into account, however, a Commission defeat seems as unlikely as a German Biergarten accepting bank cards. Speaking of Germany, the EU’s largest economy is the most vocal opponent of the duties, owing to how all German car makers are fully locked into the Chinese markets.
But because the coalition of social democrats, greens and liberals don’t agree on how to approach China, Berlin might actually be forced to abstain in the vote on EV duties. Since a hard no vote is required to assemble the 14 governments against, Germany is lobbying fellow EU countries to vote against instead.
In the meantime, EU governments are busy “getting themselves out of the retaliation zone,” as analyst Gregor Sebastian said in an interview this week. Speaking to the Financial Times, Spanish Commissioner-designate Teresa Ribera said “it is important to avoid a clash, a trade war.”
She downplayed comments by her former boss, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, that the EU should “reconsider” the duties. Beijing targeted Spain’s pork exports in an apparent retaliation against the car duties.